![]() We may get a midday and afternoon break in the Saturday showers, but there will be a chance for more late day showers. The increasing moisture will allow a better chance for showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm from late Friday night into Saturday morning. That will get stronger south winds blowing, allowing the dew points in the 50's now streaming into western Oklahoma and Kansas (green on the UCAR hourly dew point map) to move in by Sunday. Showers and Thunderstorms Likely Friday Night and On-and-Off Saturdayīy Friday night and Saturday, the first of a parade of lows coming from the large trough off the West Coast (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) will move from the Rockies into Montana. The additional moisture will be able to spread the low clouds westward from Wisconsin and Michigan (see Shortwave Albedo loop from Colorado State satellite slider) tomorrow, so high temperatures will be back in the lower 60's at best. This will allow a better chance for showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm to develop along the stalled front to our south.Īt first, we will be working with the dry air, so I only have a slight chance for a shower tomorrow. So, the amount of moisture will begin to climb over Minnesota today, tonight, and tomorrow. Eventually, the east to northeast flow will bring in some of the air from under the large Canadian low, which has been moving over the area of the heaviest precipitation during the past week. The upper level low in western Ontario and northern Manitoba (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), which helped to pull the overnight front through, is going to hang around Manitoba for the next couple of days. Moisture Supply to Increase Beginning Tonight. Thus, I expect very high to extreme fire danger once again, despite the light winds. Once again, dew points will plunge as the sun heats the lower atmosphere, so we will see relative humidities in the 20-30 percent range or even lower (see latest temperature and relative humidity from the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). 80 won't be enough to break an early May record, since the record highs range from a few middle 80's to the middle 90's, like today. I have highs from the middle 70's to perhaps having a shot at 80 degrees for the first time since our record setting April 13. So, today will be just as warm, if not warmer, than yesterday. Might Hit 80 Today: No Records, But Continued Fire Danger Note that high temperatures in the Canadian Prairie Provinces were in the 70's with even some 80's directly east of the Canadian Rockies in Alberta (see 4 PM Wednesday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). That's because the air to our north and west has still been warmed by its trip down the Canadian Rockies and the sinking under the high pressure. The winds have shifted from southeast to the south of the front to northwest to its north, but overnight temperatures have remained in the 40's in much of the northern two-thirds of Minnesota with some 50's sprinkled in (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). This front has carried some middle clouds (see Shortwave Albedo loop from Colorado State satellite slider) and a handful of radar echoes in northern Minnesota (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop), but the dry air has allowed only a few drips to reach the ground (see lack of weather symbols on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). Our air flow is still coming from the northwest, due to the western flank of the eastern Canada low and the eastern flank of the Rockies high (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), so a weak cold front has pushed into Minnesota overnight (see 24-hour loop of NWS WPC US surface maps). So, the fire danger remained extreme in central Minnesota (see Minnesota Department of Natural Resources fire danger map, despite the light winds. That produced relative humidities of 30 to as low at 15 percent (set time to yesterday afternoon on the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). The air remained extremely dry with dew points (green numbers) from the 20's to even the single digits in Iowa and Nebraska. Our weather success under high pressure (see 4 PM Wednesday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) increased yesterday with highs in the 70's throughout much of Minnesota. I will not make Star Wars comments about May the Fourth. ![]() Thursday, 3 :00 AM Bob Weisman Meteorology Professor Saint Cloud State University Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department Approaching Mid-April Warmth Today, Then Increasing Chances for Showers Fri Nt-Sat
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